fp&a crash course

Financial modeling bootcamp for building quick-and-dirty models in real time. Use the decision tree to pick a model type, then expand the industry for formulas, inputs, and metrics.

dog quick decision tree — 4 questions

Q1: Does the business earn recurring revenue on a subscription or contract?
Yes → SaaS / Subscription model
No → continue to Q2
Q2: Is the primary asset physical inventory or a physical plant?
Yes → Retail / Manufacturing model
No → continue to Q3
Q3: Is revenue driven by transactions between two or more parties?
Yes → Marketplace / Platform model
No → continue to Q4
Q4: Is the business regulated, capital-intensive, or project-based?
Yes → Utility / Infrastructure model
No → Professional Services model

17 industries — click any to expand

01 dog
retail & e-commerce 🛒
volume × margin — same-store sales, inventory turns, shrink
dog

Dog #1 says: "Retail is simple until you count inventory twice. Same-store sales growth is the number that actually matters — everything else is noise."

Retail models live and die by traffic × conversion × basket size. The key insight is separating growth from existing stores (comparable sales) versus new store openings — a 10% revenue increase looks very different if it's all new locations burning cash vs. existing stores improving productivity.

core formula
Revenue = Stores × Avg Revenue/Store Same-Store Sales Growth = (Rev_t − Rev_t-1) / Rev_t-1 [same cohort] Gross Margin = Revenue − COGS (incl. shrink + inbound freight) EBITDA = Gross Margin − Opex (occupancy + labor + marketing)

key inputs

  • Store count (opens, closures)
  • Traffic / footfall per store
  • Conversion rate
  • Average order value (AOV)
  • Inventory turnover ratio
  • Shrink rate (theft + damage)
  • Occupancy as % of sales

key metrics

  • Comparable store sales growth
  • Gross margin %
  • Inventory days on hand
  • Sales per square foot
  • EBITDAR (before rent)
  • Return on net assets (RONA)
  • E-comm penetration %

sub-industries

grocery & supermarketapparel & specialtydirect-to-consumer (DTC)big box / warehouse clubmarketplaces (Amazon, eBay)
02 dog
hospitality & hotels 🏨
RevPAR × rooms — ADR, occupancy, GOP margin
dog

Dog #2 says: "RevPAR is the heartbeat of a hotel model. If RevPAR is growing, everything else can be fixed. If RevPAR is declining, no cost cut saves you."

Hotel models center on rooms as the fixed-cost base and revenue per available room (RevPAR) as the top-line driver. Once you've paid for the building, the marginal cost of filling a room is tiny — so occupancy rate swings dramatically impact profitability.

core formula
RevPAR = Occupancy Rate × Average Daily Rate (ADR) Revenue = Available Rooms × RevPAR × 365 GOP Margin = (Revenue − Dept. Expenses) / Revenue NOI = GOP − Fixed Charges (mgmt fees, insurance, taxes)

key inputs

  • Occupancy rate by segment
  • Average daily rate (ADR)
  • F&B and ancillary revenue per key
  • Labor hours per occupied room
  • Seasonality curves
  • Capital reserves (FF&E)

key metrics

  • RevPAR & RevPAR index vs. comp set
  • GOP margin
  • TRevPAR (total revenue per available room)
  • Cost per occupied room (CPOR)
  • NOI
  • Channel mix (OTA vs. direct)

sub-industries

full-service hotelslimited-service / extended stayresorts & casinosserviced apartments
03 dog
food & beverage / restaurants 🍔
unit economics × store count — prime cost, AUV, 4-wall EBITDA
dog

Dog #3 says: "Restaurant economics are brutal. The four-wall EBITDA is your only real signal — strip out corporate overhead and see if the actual restaurant makes money."

Restaurant models are unit economics at heart. Build one store P&L perfectly, then layer in new unit opening timelines. Prime costs (food + labor) as a combined percentage is the survival metric — it needs to stay below 65% to leave room for occupancy and overhead.

core formula
AUV = Covers × Average Check × Operating Days Prime Cost % = (Food Cost + Labor Cost) / Revenue 4-Wall EBITDA = Revenue − Food − Labor − Occupancy − Other OpEx System Revenue = AUV × Number of Units

key inputs

  • Average unit volume (AUV) by vintage
  • Food cost as % of revenue
  • Labor cost % (front / back of house)
  • New unit opening schedule
  • Franchise vs. company-owned mix
  • Delivery / takeout % of sales

key metrics

  • Comparable restaurant sales growth
  • Prime cost %
  • 4-wall EBITDA margin
  • Restaurant-level operating margin
  • Payback period per new unit
  • Royalty revenue (franchised)

sub-industries

QSR / fast foodfast casualfull-service diningfood manufacturing / CPGghost kitchens
04 dog
SaaS & subscription 💻
ARR waterfall — churn cohorts, NRR, CAC payback, rule of 40
dog

Dog #4 says: "SaaS models are ARR waterfall models. New ARR − Churned ARR = Net New ARR. Simple. Until your churn cohorts mature and you realize your retention is terrible."

SaaS models are driven by the ARR waterfall: opening ARR + new bookings + expansion − contraction − churn = ending ARR. The unit economics (LTV / CAC) determine whether it's worth spending on growth. Rule of 40 is the summary metric that tells investors whether growth + profitability balance.

core formula
Net New ARR = New ARR + Expansion ARR − Contraction ARR − Churned ARR NRR = (Beginning ARR + Expansion − Contraction − Churn) / Beginning ARR CAC Payback = CAC / (ACV × Gross Margin %) Rule of 40 = Revenue Growth % + FCF Margin %

key inputs

  • Opening ARR by customer cohort
  • Gross churn rate (logo & dollar)
  • Expansion rate (upsell / cross-sell)
  • New logo bookings pipeline
  • Sales capacity (quota-carrying reps)
  • Sales cycle length

key metrics

  • Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)
  • Net Revenue Retention (NRR)
  • CAC Payback Period
  • LTV:CAC ratio
  • Rule of 40
  • Gross margin %
  • Magic Number (sales efficiency)

sub-industries

B2B enterprise SaaSPLG / product-led growthusage-based pricingconsumer subscriptionsvertical SaaS
05 dog
manufacturing & industrial ⚙️
volume × overhead absorption — utilization, capex intensity, ROCE
dog

Dog #5 says: "Capacity utilization is everything. A plant running at 60% is burning cash. The same plant at 85% prints money. That's the non-linearity of manufacturing."

Manufacturing models start with volume × price, then build COGS from the ground up: raw materials + direct labor + overhead absorption. Fixed overhead gets allocated to units — so volume swings create enormous margin volatility even if prices hold steady. A 10% volume drop can cut gross margin in half.

core formula
Revenue = Volume (units) × Average Selling Price COGS = Variable Cost/Unit × Volume + Fixed Overhead OH Absorption Variance = (Actual Vol − Budget Vol) × Std OH Rate/Unit EBITDA = Revenue − COGS − SG&A ROCE = EBIT / Capital Employed

key inputs

  • Production volume by SKU / product line
  • Capacity utilization rate
  • Raw material prices (commodity exposure)
  • Direct labor hours & wage rates
  • Maintenance vs. growth capex schedule
  • Inventory build / drawdown cycles

key metrics

  • Capacity utilization %
  • Gross margin by product line
  • OEE (Overall Equipment Effectiveness)
  • Inventory days on hand
  • Capex as % of revenue
  • EBITDA / CapEx coverage
  • ROCE

sub-industries

automotive OEM & tier 1aerospace & defensechemicals & materialsindustrial equipment
06 dog
financial services & banking 🏦
balance sheet NIM model — loan growth, deposit beta, credit losses, CET1
dog

Dog #6 says: "Banks are not normal companies. Revenue is net interest income — a spread. The model inverts: assets generate revenue, liabilities fund them. Get the balance sheet right first."

Banking models start with the balance sheet, not the income statement. Loans and investments earn interest (assets); deposits and debt cost interest (liabilities) — the spread is NIM. Add fee income, subtract credit losses and operating expenses, apply tax. Every assumption has a regulatory constraint attached.

core formula
NII = Interest Income (loans × yield) − Interest Expense (deposits × cost) NIM = NII / Average Earning Assets PPNR = NII + Non-Interest Income − Non-Interest Expense Net Income = PPNR − Provision for Loan Losses − Taxes CET1 Ratio = Common Equity Tier 1 / Risk-Weighted Assets

key inputs

  • Loan growth by portfolio (commercial, consumer, mortgage)
  • Deposit mix & beta (rate sensitivity)
  • Yield curve assumptions
  • Net charge-off rate by vintage
  • Allowance for Loan Losses (ACL)
  • Fee income drivers (cards, wealth mgmt)

key metrics

  • Net Interest Margin (NIM)
  • Efficiency ratio (Opex / Revenue)
  • Return on Assets (ROA)
  • Return on Equity (ROE)
  • CET1 capital ratio
  • Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio

sub-industries

commercial bankinginvestment bankingasset managementcredit unions / community banksfintech lending
07 dog
healthcare & hospitals 🏥
payor mix × volume — contractual adjustments, CMI, labor intensity
dog

Dog #1 says: "Healthcare models are payor mix models in disguise. Medicare pays 80 cents on the dollar, Medicaid pays 60, commercial pays 110. Who's in your waiting room determines your margin."

Hospital models build revenue from patient volume × payor mix × reimbursement rates. Gross charges are fictional — net revenue depends entirely on the payer contract and bad debt / charity care write-offs. Always model net patient revenue, never gross.

core formula
Gross Revenue = Discharges × CMI × Gross Charge/CMI-adj case Net Patient Revenue = Gross × (1 − Contractual Adj %) × (1 − Bad Debt %) Operating Margin = (NPR + Other Revenue − OpEx) / Total Revenue Days Cash on Hand = Cash / (Operating Expenses / 365)

key inputs

  • Discharges / patient days by service line
  • Payor mix (Medicare, Medicaid, commercial, self-pay)
  • Case mix index (CMI)
  • Reimbursement rates by payor
  • Bad debt & charity care %
  • Employed physician headcount

key metrics

  • Operating margin
  • Days cash on hand
  • Case mix index (CMI)
  • Labor as % of net revenue
  • Adjusted discharges YoY
  • EBITDA / operating EBITDA

sub-industries

acute care hospitalsphysician practicespost-acute / skilled nursingambulatory surgery centers
08 dog
energy, utilities & infrastructure 🔌
rate base × ROE — regulated vs. merchant, capex recovery, FFO/debt
dog

Dog #2 says: "Regulated utilities are bond-like — predictable, boring, capex-heavy. The model is: rate base × allowed ROE = net income. Simple once you accept the regulator is your silent partner."

Utility models split between regulated (rate-of-return) and merchant (market-price). Regulated utilities earn a set return on their capital base — model capital spending and rate cases. Merchant generation models commodity prices, spark spreads, and capacity market revenues. They look like completely different businesses because they are.

core formula
Rate Base = Net Utility Plant + Working Capital + Other Allowed Assets Allowed Revenue = Rate Base × (Equity% × ROE + Debt% × Rate) + O&M recovery Merchant Revenue = MWh Generated × Power Price − (Heat Rate × Gas Price) Spark Spread = Power Price − (Heat Rate × Gas Price) FFO/Debt = (Net Income + D&A + Deferred Tax) / Total Debt

key inputs

  • Rate base growth (capital additions)
  • Allowed return on equity (ROE)
  • Volume (MWh, therms, gallons)
  • Commodity prices (gas, coal, power)
  • O&M cost escalation rate
  • Rate case outcomes & timing

key metrics

  • Rate base growth %
  • EPS growth
  • FFO / Debt ratio
  • CapEx as % of rate base
  • Dividend payout ratio
  • Spark spread / dark spread

sub-industries

electric utilitiesgas distributionrenewable energy (wind / solar)water utilities
09 dog
pharmaceuticals & biotech 💊
probability-weighted NPV pipeline — patent cliffs, gross-to-net, R&D spend
dog

Dog #3 says: "Pharma models are probability-weighted NPV models. Your pipeline is worth the sum of (peak sales × probability of approval × NPV factor) for each drug. The rest is details."

Pharma models combine two very different businesses: the cash-cow marketed portfolio and the binary-outcome R&D pipeline. Modelers must probability-weight pipeline assets and sensitize against patent cliffs and generic entry timing. Gross-to-net adjustments (rebates, chargebacks) can reduce sticker price by 30–50%.

core formula
Product Revenue = Patients × Treatment Rate × Price × Gross-to-Net Adjustment Pipeline NPV = Σ [Peak Sales × PoS × Patent Life Adjusted NPV] R&D Spend = % of Revenue or budget-driven EPS = (Revenue − COGS − SG&A − R&D ± Other) × (1 − Tax Rate) / Shares

key inputs

  • Patient population & penetration rate
  • Net price (after rebates / gross-to-net)
  • Patent cliff dates by product
  • Generic erosion curve
  • Pipeline PoS (probability of success)
  • R&D budget & pipeline spend

key metrics

  • Revenue by product & geography
  • Gross-to-net adjustment %
  • R&D spend as % of revenue
  • EBITDA margin (ex-R&D)
  • Pipeline probability-weighted NPV
  • Days sales outstanding (DSO)

sub-industries

large-cap pharmabiotech (pre-revenue)specialty pharmaCROs / CDMOs
10 dog
telecommunications 📱
subscriber × ARPU — churn, capex intensity, net debt / EBITDA
dog

Dog #4 says: "Telecom models are subscriber cohort models with big capex hangovers. The question is always: is ARPU growing faster than churn? If yes, build the towers. If no, you're just a declining annuity."

Telecom models track subscriber counts × ARPU minus churn-driven losses. The capital intensity of network buildout (spectrum, towers, fiber) makes FCF timing critical — EBITDA looks great, but capex devours it for years before the network fully monetizes.

core formula
Revenue = Subscribers × ARPU Service Revenue = Post-paid + Pre-paid + Enterprise + Wholesale EBITDA = Revenue − Network Costs − SG&A (excl. D&A) FCF proxy = EBITDA − CapEx Churn Rate = Churned Subs / Opening Subs

key inputs

  • Subscriber net adds by tier
  • ARPU by plan mix
  • Monthly churn rate
  • Handset subsidy & device financing
  • Network capex schedule
  • Spectrum auction costs

key metrics

  • Revenue generating units (RGUs)
  • ARPU & ARPA
  • Monthly churn %
  • EBITDA margin
  • CapEx intensity (CapEx / Revenue)
  • Net debt / EBITDA

sub-industries

wireless carriersbroadband / cabletower companies / REITsenterprise telecom / UCaaS
11 dog
marketplaces & platforms 🛵
GMV × take rate — liquidity, buyer LTV, contribution margin
dog

Dog #5 says: "Marketplace models are GMV × take rate. The hard part is that your take rate compresses as you scale — buyers and sellers get leverage. Model the take rate as a declining function of GMV."

Marketplace models track gross merchandise value (GMV) — the total value of transactions — then apply the platform's take rate to get revenue. The classic tension is between growing GMV (requires low prices / subsidies) and improving take rate (requires more value-add services).

core formula
GMV = Active Buyers × Orders/Buyer × AOV Revenue = GMV × Take Rate Contribution Margin = Revenue − Variable COGS − S&M − Incentives Liquidity = Supply × Demand Conversion Rate

key inputs

  • Active buyer & seller counts
  • Orders per buyer
  • Average order value (AOV)
  • Take rate by category
  • Buyer & seller acquisition cost
  • Incentive spend (promos, subsidies)

key metrics

  • GMV growth %
  • Take rate %
  • Active buyer & seller counts
  • Contribution margin per transaction
  • Buyer LTV
  • Liquidity score (fill rate)

sub-industries

gig economy / ridesB2B procurement marketplacesreal estate platformsfinancial marketplaces
12 dog
insurance 🛡️
combined ratio + float — loss ratio, expense ratio, investment income
dog

Dog #6 says: "Insurance is a float business. You collect premiums today, pay claims later. The underwriting result tells you if you're profitable on the insurance side. The investment income tells you if you're profitable on the float."

Insurance models separate underwriting (premiums vs. claims + expenses) from investment income (float). Combined ratio is the core metric — above 100% means you're losing money on underwriting and need investment income to compensate. Below 100% means you get paid to hold other people's money.

core formula
Net Premiums Written (NPW) = Gross − Ceded (to reinsurers) Combined Ratio = (Losses + LAE + Underwriting Expenses) / Earned Premiums Net Income = Underwriting Income + Net Investment Income + Realized Gains − Tax Investment Income = Float × Investment Yield

key inputs

  • Policy count & retention rate
  • Average premium per policy
  • Loss ratio by line of business
  • Expense ratio
  • Investment portfolio yield
  • Reinsurance structure & cost

key metrics

  • Combined ratio
  • Loss ratio
  • Expense ratio
  • Return on equity (ROE)
  • Premium growth %
  • Solvency II / RBC ratio

sub-industries

P&C (property & casualty)life & annuitiesreinsuranceinsurtech
13 dog
media & advertising 📺
audience × monetization rate — CPM, subscriber ARPU, content cost
dog

Dog #1 says: "Media models are audience × monetization rate. Whether it's CPM, CPC, or subscription, you need to model the audience first — and audiences are the hardest thing to forecast."

Media models bifurcate into advertising revenue (impressions × CPM or clicks × CPC) and subscription / licensing. The secular shift from ad-based to subscription revenue is the dominant trend — model both tracks and the mix shift over time. Content cost is the swing variable that can destroy an otherwise-healthy margin profile.

core formula
Ad Revenue = Impressions (000s) × CPM / 1000 Digital Ad Revenue = Sessions × Pages/Session × Fill Rate × CPM Sub Revenue = Subscribers × ARPU Licensing = Content Hours × License Rate per Hour

key inputs

  • Monthly active users / unique visitors
  • Engagement (time spent, pages per visit)
  • CPM / CPC by channel
  • Subscriber count & churn
  • Content spend budget
  • Upfront vs. scatter advertising mix

key metrics

  • ARPU (ad + subscription combined)
  • CPM trends by format
  • Subscriber count & NRR
  • Content cost per hour
  • Audience retention & engagement
  • EBITDA (content amortization excluded)

sub-industries

streaming (SVOD / AVOD)social media platformsdigital publishingtraditional broadcast & print
14 dog
professional services & consulting 👔
headcount × utilization — bill rate, pyramid leverage, DSO
dog

Dog #2 says: "Professional services is a people model. Headcount × bill rate × utilization = revenue. If utilization drops below 70%, you're burning cash. If it's above 85%, your people are burning out."

Services firms model billable headcount × utilization rate × average bill rate. The pyramid structure (partners leverage juniors) determines margin — model partner-to-staff ratios and their respective comp as the key COGS driver. Attrition is an operating risk, not just an HR metric.

core formula
Revenue = Billable Headcount × Avg Bill Rate × Utilization Rate × Working Days Utilization Rate = Billable Hours / Total Available Hours Gross Margin = Revenue − Direct Staff Cost (incl. benefits) EBITDA = Gross Margin − Overhead (facilities, G&A, BD)

key inputs

  • Headcount by level (partner, manager, analyst)
  • Bill rate by level & market
  • Target utilization by level
  • Revenue per partner
  • Pipeline win rate
  • Attrition rate by level

key metrics

  • Utilization rate %
  • Revenue per FTE
  • Bill rate realization
  • Partner leverage ratio
  • Revenue per partner
  • Days sales outstanding (DSO)

sub-industries

management consultingIT services & outsourcinglegal servicesaccounting & audit firms
15 dog
edtech & online education 🎓
learner cohort × ARPU — completion rate, CAC, B2B ARR
dog

Dog #3 says: "EdTech models look like SaaS but aren't. Content has high upfront cost and low marginal cost. CAC is high (education is a grudge purchase). Completion rates tell you if you'll get word-of-mouth."

EdTech models blend subscription, course-by-course, and B2B enterprise sales. Content is a depreciating asset — a course launched in 2020 needs refresh spend by 2025. Model content library value alongside subscriber growth and treat content amortization as a real cost, not a non-cash afterthought.

core formula
Revenue = (B2C Subs × ARPU) + (Enterprise Seats × Seat License Fee) + Course Sales Content COGS = Instructor Rev Share + Content Amortization CAC = Marketing Spend / New Enrollments (or Subs) LTV = ARPU × Avg Subscription Duration × Gross Margin %

key inputs

  • New enrollments / subscriber adds
  • Monthly churn rate
  • ARPU by plan
  • Enterprise seat count & ASP
  • Content production budget
  • Completion rates by course type

key metrics

  • Monthly active learners
  • Course completion rate
  • Subscriber count & churn
  • CAC by channel
  • LTV:CAC ratio
  • B2B ARR & NRR

sub-industries

MOOCs / course marketplacescorporate L&D platformsK-12 ed platformstest prep & certifications
16 dog
gaming 🎮
DAU × ARPDAU — retention curves, payer conversion, LTV:CPI
dog

Dog #4 says: "Gaming models are live-service economics: you launch a game and it's a platform. DAU × ARPDAU is the engine. The question is how many of your DAUs are paying players — and how much."

Mobile gaming models use ARPDAU × DAU for live-service titles. The economics pivot on conversion from free to paying — top spenders ("whales") generate the majority of IAP revenue, so whale retention is existential. D1 / D7 / D30 retention curves compound fast: a 1% improvement in D30 retention can double LTV.

core formula
Mobile Revenue = DAU × ARPDAU ARPDAU = Paying User % × ARPPU (avg revenue per paying user) Premium Revenue = Units Sold × ASP LTV = D1 Retention × D30 Retention cohort model × ARPDAU Payback = CPI / D30 LTV

key inputs

  • Daily active users (DAU) by title
  • D1 / D7 / D30 retention curves
  • Conversion rate (free to paying)
  • ARPPU by spender segment
  • UA spend & cost per install (CPI)
  • New title launch schedule

key metrics

  • DAU / MAU ratio (stickiness)
  • ARPDAU & ARPPU
  • Retention curves (D1, D7, D30)
  • Conversion rate (payers)
  • LTV:CPI ratio
  • Revenue by title / franchise

sub-industries

mobile free-to-playPC / console (premium)game subscriptions (Game Pass)e-sports & tournament operators
17 dog
real estate & property development 🏢
NOI / cap rate — IRR, DSCR, equity multiple, FFO
dog

Dog #5 says: "Real estate is a cap rate model. NOI / Cap Rate = Value. If cap rates expand by 50bps and your NOI doesn't grow, you just lost 5–8% of asset value. That's the rate risk nobody talks about at the pitch."

Real estate models layer three analyses: the property-level NOI model, the project-level development return, and the portfolio / REIT model. The discount rate and cap rate assumptions drive valuation far more than operating assumptions — sensitivity tables on cap rates are mandatory, not optional.

core formula
NOI = Gross Potential Rent − Vacancy & Credit Loss − Operating Expenses Cap Rate = NOI / Property Value → Value = NOI / Cap Rate Cash-on-Cash Return = Annual Pre-Tax Cash Flow / Total Cash Invested IRR = Discount rate that sets NPV = 0 across holding period Equity Multiple = Total Distributions / Total Equity Invested

key inputs

  • Occupancy rate & market rent growth
  • Lease expiration schedule
  • Cap rate assumption (entry & exit)
  • Debt terms (LTV, rate, maturity)
  • Development cost schedule
  • Tenant credit quality

key metrics

  • NOI & NOI margin
  • Cap rate (entry vs. exit)
  • Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR)
  • IRR & equity multiple
  • LTV ratio
  • FFO / AFFO (for REITs)

sub-industries

multifamily / residentialoffice & commercialindustrial / logisticsretail real estatedata centers
18 dog
startups & early-stage 🚀
burn rate × runway — headcount-driven, scenario planning, unit economics
dog

Dog #6 says: "A startup model has one job: show how long until you die, and what it takes to not die. Runway × burn rate × milestones. Everything else is fiction dressed up as planning."

Startup models are burn-rate models with aspirational upside. Build the bottoms-up cost structure honestly — headcount drives 60–80% of costs. Then layer in revenue scenarios. The key deliverable is a runway analysis showing how different revenue outcomes change your cash-out date and next fundraise timing.

core formula
Monthly Burn = Operating Expenses − Revenue Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Gross Burn = Total Operating Costs Net Burn = Gross Burn − Revenue LTV = (ARPU × Gross Margin %) / Monthly Churn Rate CAC Payback = CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin %)

key inputs

  • Headcount plan by department & month
  • Average loaded cost per hire (salary × 1.25)
  • Revenue pipeline conversion rate
  • Pilot → paid conversion %
  • Infrastructure costs (cloud, tools)
  • Fundraise timing assumptions

key metrics

  • Monthly burn rate
  • Cash runway (months)
  • MoM revenue growth %
  • CAC payback period
  • Headcount efficiency (Rev / FTE)
  • Gross margin % (unit economics)

sub-industries

pre-seed / seedSeries A (post-PMF)deep tech / hardwareconsumer apps

dog golden rules of financial modeling

  1. Build the unit first. One store, one subscriber, one loan — make unit economics work before scaling to a portfolio. Garbage units make garbage models.
  2. Separate volume from price. Revenue surprises are almost always volume × price mix problems. Don't let them hide in a single revenue line.
  3. COGS before gross margin. Know your true cost to deliver before you celebrate any margin number. Overhead allocation kills more models than bad revenue assumptions.
  4. Sensitize everything that moves the answer 20%+. If one assumption swings results by 20% or more, build a sensitivity table for it. No point pretending precision you don't have.
  5. Cash is not earnings. Build the three statements. Working capital timing and capex destroy more companies than income statement losses.
  6. The model is a conversation starter. No forecast survives contact with reality. The model's job is to tell you what to watch, not what will happen.
  7. Pat the dogs. Take a break. Come back with fresh eyes. The error you've been hunting for three hours is always in the cell you're most confident about.